U-C-F (10-3) Vs. Mississippi State (7-5)

GAME NOTES: The red-hot UCF Knights will try to complete one of their best seasons ever this weekend, when they tangle with the Mississippi State Bulldogs in the 49th annual AutoZone Liberty Bowl in Memphis. The Knights enter the contest riding a school-record seven-game win streak and that includes a 44-25 triumph over Tulsa in the Conference USA title game. It is the first C-USA championship for the program, which also tied a school-record with 10 wins. This is UCF's second-ever bowl appearance, with its first coming in a 49-48 overtime loss to Nevada in the 2005 Hawaii Bowl. As for Mississippi State, it is has been the doormat of the SEC over the past several years, but Sylvester Croom has the program on the rise in his fourth year as head coach. After going just 9-25 in Croom's first three seasons, the Bulldogs surprised just about everyone by finishing the regular season a solid 7-5. The team went 4-4 in league play and that was a big accomplishment when considering it had won a total of five conferences games in the previous five seasons. The turnaround has landed MSU in its 13th bowl game and its first since posting a 43-41 win over Texas A&M in the 2000 Independence Bowl. The Bulldogs own a 6-6 record in bowl games and that includes an even 1-1 mark in the Liberty Bowl. MSU and UCF have met just once previously, with the Bulldogs capturing a 35-28 triumph in 1997.

The Knights are averaging a robust 38.4 ppg on the season mainly because of the play of tailback Kevin Smith, who has shattered numerous records this season. The explosive back leads the nation with 2,448 rushing yards and 30 total touchdowns (29), helping him become the first player in school history to earn consensus All-America honors. In the C-USA title game, Smith rushed for 284 yards and four scores, and in the process he set the NCAA single-season record for rushing attempts with 415. Smith, who is averaging 188.3 rushing ypg, is now just 180 yards behind Barry Sanders for the NCAA Bowl Subdivision single- season rushing record. With all the success on the ground, quarterback Kyle Israel hasn't been counted on to do much more than hand the ball off and manage the offense. When attempting to pass, however, Israel has done a decent job in throwing for 2,085 yards with 15 touchdowns against eight interceptions. He has also scored five times on the ground, helping UCF amass a school-record 41 rushing touchdowns. Rocky Ross and Kamar Aiken are the team's main targets in the passing game and they have combined for 80 catches, 1,205 yards and seven scores.

UCF's defense hasn't been nearly as good as its offense, as the unit is giving up 27.8 ppg and 379.3 total ypg. The Knights are permitting 131.1 ypg on the ground and 248.2 ypg through the air, and they also allowing opposing teams to convert 40 percent of the time on third down. The defense, though, has been able to come up with some big plays and it is tied for the national-lead in interceptions with 23. Getting to opposing quarterbacks has helped force many of those picks, and UCF has had no problems brining down opposing quarterbacks either, registering an impressive 38 sacks. Leger Douzable leads the team with 7.5 sacks and 13.0 TFLs, while Bruce Miller ranks second with seven sacks and nine TFLs. Corners Joe Burnett and Johnell Neal are extremely dangerous to throw against and they have picked off six and five passes, respectively.

The Bulldogs have not had much success on the offensive side of the ball this season, as they are averaging a lackluster 22.4 ppg behind a mere 305.3 total ypg. The offense hasn't had all that much success on the ground (135.3 ypg) or through the air (170.0 ypg), and it has committed 27 turnovers. Tailback Anthony Dixon, however, has enjoyed a solid campaign and he leads MSU with 980 rushing yards and 15 total touchdowns (13 rushing). Dixon, though is averaging just 3.7 yards per carry and he has rushed for a total of just 66 yards over his last two games. True freshman Wesley Carroll started the last seven games at quarterback for the Bulldogs and he led the team to a 4-3 record during that span. In eight starts and 12 appearances for the season, Carroll has completed 53.2 percent of his throws for 1,353 yards with nine touchdowns and six interceptions. His most unutilized targets are Tony Burks and Jamayel Smith, who have accounted for a combined 63 catches, 943 yards and six touchdowns.

Defensively, Mississippi State has been sound, especially when considering the caliber of teams in the SEC. For the season, the Bulldogs are holing their opponents to 24.8 ppg and 341.2 total ypg. The unit, though, has shown some vulnerability against the run (159.0 ypg), and it has given up over 200 yards on the ground in four its last six outings. That is especially bad news when considering the talented back they are going to face in this game. Bringing down opposing quarterbacks has also been a problem for MSU, which has generated just 16 sacks to this point in the season. Titus Brown has accounted for eight quarterback takedowns and he also leads the team with 13.5 TFLs. Jamar Chaney is another player worth noting, as he tops the roster in total tackles with 81.

The Knights come into this contest with a great deal of momentum and behind the dynamic running of Smith, they should be able to prevail against a solid if unspectacular group of Bulldogs.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: UCF 30, Mississippi State 24